Source: in-cyprus.philenews.com
We live in difficult times. Economically, politically, socially. Throughout the entire world, insecurity and uncertainty reign. The optimism that once existed—that better days were dawning—has vanished, and more and more people are anxious about the future.
Trade wars are the new reality. Global economic growth is slowing at a very sluggish pace. Military conflicts rage in more than 50 countries. Economic inequalities are increasing dramatically, and so whilst a small group sees its income soar, the rest worry about how they’ll make it through the month. Technology is causing tectonic shifts, transforming the way we live, work and socialise.
We enter 2026 with only one certainty: that nothing is certain anymore. Within this environment, trust in institutions is being tested. Democracy is under pressure, public discourse is polarised and disinformation is spreading at unprecedented speed. Societies are struggling to find common ground, as fear and insecurity often prevail over reason and cooperation. The decisions being made today often seem short-term, unable to answer the deeper and more complex challenges of our times.
And yet, within this dark juncture, an intense need for change is also emerging. The search for meaning, solidarity and new forms of cooperation is becoming more urgent than ever. Perhaps uncertainty is ultimately also an invitation: to redefine priorities, to invest in people and to rebuild hope—not as an easy promise, but as a conscious choice of responsibility and collective action.
Four experts—Anna Koukkides-Procopiou, Demetrios Eliades, Athanasios Bozinis and Michalis Florentiades—speak to Phileleftheros about the year that is leaving us and describe the challenges that await us for the next one in critical areas such as international relations, the environment, technology and the economy.
Through their contributions, a complex but realistic picture of 2025 emerges. They do not limit themselves to identifying problems, but attempt to illuminate their deeper causes, highlighting the critical dilemmas we will be called upon to face in 2026. Their views converge on the fact that the choices that will be made will determine not only the course of development, but also the quality of democracy, social cohesion and international stability.
In a world where developments are extremely rapid and often unpredictable, knowledge and critical thinking are essential tools. The challenges ahead are not inevitably condemning; they can be transformed into opportunities, provided there is strategy, cooperation and political will for substantive changes.
Security, security, security!
If one keyword summarises humanity’s concerns for 2025, it can only be the word security—and more specifically, the feedback loop between external and internal threats that makes the differentiation between internal and external security now imperceptible. In an increasingly fragile world, the big question is who will be the willing provider of security for everyone else.
First, the American president, Donald Trump, although imbued with the grandeur of a planetary ruler, moves unilaterally, even with contempt one could say towards his European allies. The ambiguity of his intentions leaves NATO and the EU hanging, whilst keeping Moscow out of the firing line and focusing more on China as a trade rival rather than as an authoritarian military threat to Washington’s interests and the democracies that remain on our planet.
Second, the war in Ukraine cannot stop at the point where it stands today without security guarantees—that is, without American intervention, which however appears to favour the interests and intentions of the invader rather than those of the Ukrainian people. Third, the peace agreement in the Middle East cannot even proceed to the next phase, let alone be completed, without American assurances.
Additionally, tensions on foreign policy issues on the international chessboard translate as a risk multiplier for the cohesion of societies and their resilience to external and internal threats. The military disputes in the Middle East but also the internal upheavals and climate change affecting Africa create migratory flows, with cumulative effects that local Western societies cannot absorb, resulting in polarisation, xenophobia and often racism, which are fully exploited by far-right movements.
At the same time, these same movements often reproduce and magnify Russian propaganda against Ukraine, Europe and the West more generally, even incorporating the war against the woke agenda into the discussion. The tone from the top—as with Trump’s election in the US—acts as an external multiplier of all these internal trends.
Where, then, does internal security stop and external security begin? Can the security forces—the police, the army, intelligence services, rescue centres—work independently of one another, or is a new Unified Security Doctrine imperative, one that moves along the axes of inclusive security and human security? What constitutes border protection? Citizen protection? Protection of democracy? And what factors make up a modern security equation? In the new era that humanity is going through, all of the above must be answered by every government.
Anna Koukkides-Procopiou, 2026 Yale Peace Fellow, Member of the EMI–Eastern Mediterranean Initiative, Geneva Centre for Security/SwissPeace and President of the POLITEIA think tank
Cypriot economy 2025: high expectations and favourable conditions
2025 was a very good year for the Cypriot economy, as the growth rate is expected to exceed 3%, inflation—aided by energy and food prices—is below 1% and unemployment is at a historically low level below 4.5%. In other words, a fairly favourable economic environment was observed with a high growth rate but also relatively low inflation.
But what were the factors that led to these impressive performances? Developments in tourism were particularly positive, as 2025 was a record year. Arrivals increased at a rate exceeding 10%. Whilst tourism is a traditional sector, Cyprus also appears to have benefited from investments and the activity of mainly foreign technology and IT companies. These companies operate in sectors where there is rapid growth and increased turnover. However, it appears that the economy is based mainly on foreign companies coming to Cyprus rather than on the creation of Cypriot companies, as the corresponding incentives for domestic entrepreneurship in these critical future sectors (technology and IT) appear to be absent.
Another positive development was the fiscal surplus, which is expected to exceed 3% of GDP during the past year. Thus, Cyprus is expected to manage to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio below the important level of 60%, which is considered a kind of critical threshold for the European Union. The hope is that the reduction of debt as a percentage of GDP will continue, so that there is flexibility in case of slower growth rates in the future.
Finally, the international environment was also favourable for the Cypriot economy, as despite threats of a “trade war” between the US and the rest of the world, in the end there were agreements which on the one hand increased restrictions and taxes on imports, but on the other hand things were better than the worst-case scenario.
Michalis Florentiades, CFA Chief Economist, Head of Market Analysis
Environment 2025: The new climate reality
In 2025, the effects of the climate crisis became established as the “new normal”. According to the European Copernicus Service, the year is expected to end as the 2nd or 3rd warmest globally, whilst the three-year average for 2023–2025 is expected to exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This development indicates that we are moving off track in relation to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit the temperature increase to below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
The need for adaptation became particularly visible in Europe, where 2025 was characterised by intense climate variability. Prolonged periods of drought affected southeastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, whilst heatwaves occurred in southern and western Europe. At the same time, wildfires intensified and their period lengthened, whilst parts of northern and western Europe recorded episodes of increased rainfall and flooding.
The increasing frequency of droughts and floods, combined with the fact that 30% of European citizens live in areas facing seasonal or permanent water resource stress, pushed the EU to place water at the centre of climate policy. In June, the EU adopted the European Water Resilience Strategy, setting targets by 2030 for efficiency, loss reduction and smart water management, as well as security and preparedness issues in crisis management.
In the Mediterranean and specifically in Cyprus, the water crisis took an even more acute form. In 2025, Cyprus experienced its third consecutive year of drought with dam reserves below 10%, turning strategically to desalination for water supply needs. This development highlighted water scarcity as a systemic security risk for Cyprus and not as a temporary phenomenon, as the government presented an investment plan with a total cost of €1.2 billion for the country’s water security. The major challenge was and remains the availability of sufficient quantities of good-quality water for agriculture, as it is inextricably linked to the economy and social welfare.
The real question that 2025 leaves is not whether the impacts will intensify, but whether governments, institutions, societies and the economy will manage to adapt in time to the new normal, in a way that maintains cohesion, prosperity and security.
Dr Demetrios Eliades, Assistant Research Professor Centre of Excellence for Research and Innovation KIOS, University of Cyprus
Artificial intelligence as a field of competition at global level
Artificial intelligence is one of the key strategic technologies of the future, along with cyberspace, robotics, neurotechnology, nanotechnology and quantum mechanics. AI, as a fundamental science of computer science, is today perhaps the biggest point of technological competition at global level, and especially between the US, Russia and China, regarding its use in strategic applications as a factor of power and development, in military operations, in economic development, in crisis management, in the decision-making process, in cyberspace protection, in health, in digital governance, in education and in democracy.
AI’s powerful ability to analyse and manage big data gives it the strong advantage of being today a field of global competition over which state will be able to develop effective models for predicting and managing crises and threats. Although fears of a potential threat to humanity due to AI’s expansion through a hypercomputational singularity have not yet been confirmed, the use of AI for cyberwarfare, cyber-propaganda, hybrid warfare—especially with the widespread dissemination of fake news, images and videos—constitutes a major threat to global security.
The attempt at global AI governance is today quite a difficult puzzle for the international community. The dynamic use of algorithms by multiple actors in the international system and the globalisation of information through cyberspace significantly complicates the ethical application of AI, and the possibility of AI weaponisation is increasingly lurking.
The interdependence of AI with robotics, neurotechnology, quantum mechanics and other future technologies will create new trends in the strategic use of these new technologies by states in the international system. The two regional wars highlighted states’ shift towards wars and defences now based on high strategic technology, whilst the near future shows that the global community will turn its attention to the convergence of the new strategic technologies.
Athanasios E. Bozinis, Assistant Professor of Global Political Economy and New Technologies – Biosecurity, Department of International and European Studies, University of Macedonia
